By jwr |

Where was Hari Seldon? He would have predicted all this and the effects would have been much softer.

Semiconductor shortage

A global shortage of semiconductors is growing out of control. Almost all types of electronic goods are affected, from smartphones and gaming equipment to vehicles and kitchen appliances. While the semiconductor manufacturers struggle to supply their largest customers like Apple and Samsung, smaller customers like automobile and appliance manufacturers are experiencing delays that are now halting the production lines: just a small chip missing and the vehicle can't get finished (The Guardian).

How could this happen?

The basis lies again, of course, in the corona crisis with initial production delays, now alleviated. And then a couple of additional developments.

  • People bought more stay-at-home electronic goods in the pandemic, increasing demand: TVs, home computers, game consoles, 5G enabled phones, and whatever you yourself bought to stave off boredom.
  • Vehicle manufacturers have now finally and en masse decided on electric cars, mostly electronics-stuffed. All this requires semiconductors.
  • Not described elsewhere, but a known fact, is when demand of certain items increases China, it is likely to affect the entire globe. We note here baby milk powder, hardwood, (protected) exotic animals, and wild mushrooms as simple examples.
  • Then D. Trump (US National Vulgarist) added the high-tech front to the US-China Trade War: semiconductors. And there you have it, a perfect storm.

Who makes the chips?

While a number of major tech companies claim to be chip manufacturers, many of those companies simply aren't. They farm the manufacturing out to technologically adept lower income countries: China, Taiwan, South Korea. Note here the new-fangled idiosyncrasy of terms: a manufacturer who does not manufacture remains to be called a manufacturer, albeit a "fabless manufacturer", while the jargon for an actual manufacturer is not called a manufacturer, but a "foundry". The top 5 foundries, listed roughly according to size:

  • TSMC (Taiwan), leader, cutting edge chips, standard chips
  • Samsung Foundries (South Korea), Intel (USA), SMIC (China), for standard chips
  • Global Foundries (USA), Skywater (USA), both for specialty chips

Note: Of course there are many smaller foundries all over, but generally a large unreal manufacturer would avoid to get the components for a specific item from a slew of different smaller companies. Note also that world leader TSMC also operates semiconductor foundries in China, producing standard chips. And also note that China is on turbodrive to expand local semiconductor manufacturing for standard and high-tech chips.

A complete list of List of Semiconductor fabrication plants is shown in Wikipedia. Toggle the list for Production Capacity (size). Also toggle it for Process Technology (sophistication) to see who manufactures the newest/ fastest/ smallest high-end chips (indicated by 3nm or 5nm), that is by the way TSMC in Taiwan, possibly by order and design of Apple.

Geopolitical aspects

We've already seen the dependence of all modern products and manufacturing on these semiconductors. The concentration of the bulk of manufacturing in an area where one single country, China, is showing increasing influence, to the degree of threats and even military grandstanding, should be seen as a global geopolitical socio-economic risk.

Whatever the few pennies it costs more, these semiconductors should also be made on grand scale in other areas.

Strategic materials

In cases of crises or conflicts, the obvious aim is to secure needed strategic materials. These used to be oil, steel, coal, food, but also important manufacturing. While the fundamentals of strategic materials remain, the content changes, and now includes rare metals, water and... semiconductor manufacturing.

Just one example. "Beijing’s main problem is the manufacturing of high-end chips. Huawei’s Kirin chipsets are made by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) using American technology." (TRT World). Now that's quite a conflagration of dependencies, and it's already causing trouble.

Low Tech

Apparently at mid 2021, the greatest bottleneck are the small IC chips that control larger or smaller LCD screens. Specifically these chips are not made in high tech IC foundries making high-end 10 or 7 nanometer chips, but in rather older, run of the mill factories making 40 to 150 nanometer chips. As everyone has been rushing to upgrade (ostensibly to make more money), the "manufacturers" were caught flatfooted when demand for cheap ICs controlling mundane LCD screens suddenly mushroomed during the pandemic. And now, experts expect the backlog to last well into 2023!

What's next?

Of course, the semiconductor sector will normalize at some time, hopefully with more geographical diversification. But as before, chips are not likely to get less expensive.

As of mid 2021 the pandemic continues to cause a slew of shortages, either caused by production issues, export stops, changed consumer behavior, or, like in China, industrial catch-up growth - again affecting the globe.

Of course, first it was a shortage of personal protection equipment (PPE), then a shortage in long-distance freight, then a shortage of containers, then a shortage of semiconductors. As India undergoes a catastrophic third wave, it halts all exports of the vaccines expected in many, mostly developing countries. But as economies begin to recuperate the scope of shortages expands from aluminum foil to construction wood.

This leads to price increases. Some of those increases will not be temporary, so according to some specialists, "inflation" is on the loom...

Then add to the that mix: Russia's vicious war against the Ukraine, with a worldwide gas, oil and grains crisis. This is definitely not funny anymore.

---

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/10/china-and-physics…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/chinas-war-chest-how-the-…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/14/us-microchip-indu…

https://eand.co/why-everything-is-suddenly-getting-more-expensive-and-w… And now, shortages in just about everything - but read this with caution, some doubtful "facts".

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-tiny-1-chip-that-is-behind-record…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-02/china-s-inflation…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/inflation-rate-2021-…

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/chip-wars-us-china-and-the-battle-for…

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/whats-causing-the-chip-shortage-affecti…

https://hbr.org/2021/02/why-were-in-the-midst-of-a-global-semiconductor…

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/a-tour-of-the-semiconductor-industry

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/an-introduction-to-semiconductor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_Manufacturing_International…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

History of TSMC:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RMr9lzlgrReruoosnoHLIZ0hHbqJT5Kq7hZ…

 

 

Comments

generic viagra… (not verified)

2 weeks 1 day ago

Hello there, I discovered your web site by means of Google whilst looking for a similar subject, your web site came up, it seems great. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.
Hello there, just changed into alert to your weblog via Google, and found that it is truly informative. I'm going to be careful for brussels. I will be grateful should you proceed this in future. A lot of other folks will likely be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

buy viagra pha… (not verified)

2 weeks 1 day ago

I just like the helpful info you provide in your articles. I will bookmark your blog and check again right here frequently. I am relatively certain I'll be informed a lot of new stuff proper right here! Good luck for the following!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

2 weeks ago

I'm not sure exactly why but this blog is loading incredibly slow for me. Is anyone else having this problem or is it a issue on my end? I'll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

2 weeks ago

I do not know whether it's just me or if everyone else experiencing issues with your blog. It looks like some of the written text on your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them too? This might be a problem with my web browser because I've had this happen before. Thank you

cheap prescrip… (not verified)

1 week 6 days ago

Howdy would you mind stating which blog platform you're working with? I'm going to start my own blog soon but I'm having a difficult time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I'm looking for something completely unique. P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

online pharmac… (not verified)

1 week 6 days ago

Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic nevertheless I'd figured I'd ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog article or vice-versa? My blog goes over a lot of the same subjects as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you might be interested feel free to shoot me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Excellent blog by the way!

discount pharmacies (not verified)

1 week 6 days ago

I am genuinely glad to glance at this webpage posts which includes lots of useful information, thanks for providing such information.

drugstore onli… (not verified)

1 week 5 days ago

Excellent post. I used to be checking continuously this blog and I'm impressed! Extremely helpful info particularly the closing section :) I deal with such info much. I was looking for this particular info for a long time. Thanks and best of luck.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

1 week 4 days ago

You are so cool! I do not think I've truly read through anything like that before. So wonderful to discover someone with a few unique thoughts on this issue. Really.. thanks for starting this up. This website is one thing that's needed on the internet, someone with a bit of originality!

drugstore onli… (not verified)

1 week 4 days ago

Undeniably believe that which you said. Your favourite justification seemed to be on the internet the simplest thing to remember of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed at the same time as other folks think about issues that they just do not realize about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top as smartly as outlined out the entire thing with no need side effect , other folks could take a signal. Will probably be again to get more. Thank you

medical pharmacy (not verified)

1 week 4 days ago

excellent points altogether, you simply gained a brand new reader. What could you suggest about your put up that you made some days ago? Any sure?

approved canad… (not verified)

1 week 3 days ago

Thanks for another informative site. Where else may I am getting that kind of information written in such a perfect way? I have a undertaking that I'm simply now operating on, and I've been on the glance out for such information.

pharmaceutical… (not verified)

1 week 2 days ago

Hi, always i used to check web site posts here early in the dawn, for the reason that i enjoy to learn more and more.

discount pharmacies (not verified)

1 week 1 day ago

Hi there are using Wordpress for your blog platform? I'm new to the blog world but I'm trying to get started and set up my own. Do you need any coding expertise to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!

national pharmacies (not verified)

1 week 1 day ago

I love reading a post that will make men and women think. Also, thank you for permitting me to comment!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

1 week ago

I'm truly enjoying the design and layout of your blog. It's a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more pleasant for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to create your theme? Superb work!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

1 week ago

Hello! Would you mind if I share your blog with my zynga group? There's a lot of people that I think would really enjoy your content. Please let me know. Thanks

online drugsto… (not verified)

6 days 8 hours ago

Hey! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on. You have done a wonderful job!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 days 1 hour ago

Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with a few pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is great blog. A great read. I'll definitely be back.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

5 days 19 hours ago

Do you have a spam problem on this blog; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have developed some nice practices and we are looking to swap methods with others, be sure to shoot me an e-mail if interested.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

5 days 5 hours ago

Hey! I'm at work surfing around your blog from my new apple iphone! Just wanted to say I love reading through your blog and look forward to all your posts! Keep up the fantastic work!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

4 days 22 hours ago

It's actually a nice and helpful piece of information. I'm satisfied that you just shared this useful information with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

pharmacy discount (not verified)

4 days 16 hours ago

Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

4 days 2 hours ago

Hey there! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I genuinely enjoy reading your articles. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same topics? Thank you!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 days 19 hours ago

Howdy, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam remarks? If so how do you prevent it, any plugin or anything you can recommend? I get so much lately it's driving me mad so any support is very much appreciated.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

2 days 21 hours ago

I like looking through a post that can make people think. Also, many thanks for allowing for me to comment!

canadian drugs… (not verified)

2 days 14 hours ago

Someone essentially help to make critically articles I might state. This is the very first time I frequented your web page and up to now? I amazed with the analysis you made to make this particular put up incredible. Great task!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

2 days ago

Your method of telling everything in this article is really pleasant, all be able to without difficulty understand it, Thanks a lot.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

1 day 17 hours ago

I am curious to find out what blog system you happen to be working with? I'm having some minor security issues with my latest website and I'd like to find something more safeguarded. Do you have any solutions?

canadian pharm… (not verified)

18 hours 8 min ago

Thank you, I have just been searching for info approximately this topic for ages and yours is the greatest I have came upon so far. But, what about the conclusion? Are you positive about the supply?

canada pharmac… (not verified)

1 sec ago

Howdy! This post couldn't be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

Add new comment

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a href hreflang title rel> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote cite> <code> <ul type> <ol start type> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <h2 id> <h3 id> <h4 id> <h5 id> <h6 id> <sup> <sub>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.