By jwr |

Where was Hari Seldon? He would have predicted all this and the effects would have been much softer.

Semiconductor shortage

A global shortage of semiconductors is growing out of control. Almost all types of electronic goods are affected, from smartphones and gaming equipment to vehicles and kitchen appliances. While the semiconductor manufacturers struggle to supply their largest customers like Apple and Samsung, smaller customers like automobile and appliance manufacturers are experiencing delays that are now halting the production lines: just a small chip missing and the vehicle can't get finished (The Guardian).

How could this happen?

The basis lies again, of course, in the corona crisis with initial production delays, now alleviated. And then a couple of additional developments.

  • People bought more stay-at-home electronic goods in the pandemic, increasing demand: TVs, home computers, game consoles, 5G enabled phones, and whatever you yourself bought to stave off boredom.
  • Vehicle manufacturers have now finally and en masse decided on electric cars, mostly electronics-stuffed. All this requires semiconductors.
  • Not described elsewhere, but a known fact, is when demand of certain items increases China, it is likely to affect the entire globe. We note here baby milk powder, hardwood, (protected) exotic animals, and wild mushrooms as simple examples.
  • Then D. Trump (US National Vulgarist) added the high-tech front to the US-China Trade War: semiconductors. And there you have it, a perfect storm.

Who makes the chips?

While a number of major tech companies claim to be chip manufacturers, many of those companies simply aren't. They farm the manufacturing out to technologically adept lower income countries: China, Taiwan, South Korea. Note here the new-fangled idiosyncrasy of terms: a manufacturer who does not manufacture remains to be called a manufacturer, albeit a "fabless manufacturer", while the jargon for an actual manufacturer is not called a manufacturer, but a "foundry". The top 5 foundries, listed roughly according to size:

  • TSMC (Taiwan), leader, cutting edge chips, standard chips
  • Samsung Foundries (South Korea), Intel (USA), SMIC (China), for standard chips
  • Global Foundries (USA), Skywater (USA), both for specialty chips

Note: Of course there are many smaller foundries all over, but generally a large unreal manufacturer would avoid to get the components for a specific item from a slew of different smaller companies. Note also that world leader TSMC also operates semiconductor foundries in China, producing standard chips. And also note that China is on turbodrive to expand local semiconductor manufacturing for standard and high-tech chips.

A complete list of List of Semiconductor fabrication plants is shown in Wikipedia. Toggle the list for Production Capacity (size). Also toggle it for Process Technology (sophistication) to see who manufactures the newest/ fastest/ smallest high-end chips (indicated by 3nm or 5nm), that is by the way TSMC in Taiwan, possibly by order and design of Apple.

Geopolitical aspects

We've already seen the dependence of all modern products and manufacturing on these semiconductors. The concentration of the bulk of manufacturing in an area where one single country, China, is showing increasing influence, to the degree of threats and even military grandstanding, should be seen as a global geopolitical socio-economic risk.

Whatever the few pennies it costs more, these semiconductors should also be made on grand scale in other areas.

Strategic materials

In cases of crises or conflicts, the obvious aim is to secure needed strategic materials. These used to be oil, steel, coal, food, but also important manufacturing. While the fundamentals of strategic materials remain, the content changes, and now includes rare metals, water and... semiconductor manufacturing.

Just one example. "Beijing’s main problem is the manufacturing of high-end chips. Huawei’s Kirin chipsets are made by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) using American technology." (TRT World). Now that's quite a conflagration of dependencies, and it's already causing trouble.

Low Tech

Apparently at mid 2021, the greatest bottleneck are the small IC chips that control larger or smaller LCD screens. Specifically these chips are not made in high tech IC foundries making high-end 10 or 7 nanometer chips, but in rather older, run of the mill factories making 40 to 150 nanometer chips. As everyone has been rushing to upgrade (ostensibly to make more money), the "manufacturers" were caught flatfooted when demand for cheap ICs controlling mundane LCD screens suddenly mushroomed during the pandemic. And now, experts expect the backlog to last well into 2023!

What's next?

Of course, the semiconductor sector will normalize at some time, hopefully with more geographical diversification. But as before, chips are not likely to get less expensive.

As of mid 2021 the pandemic continues to cause a slew of shortages, either caused by production issues, export stops, changed consumer behavior, or, like in China, industrial catch-up growth - again affecting the globe.

Of course, first it was a shortage of personal protection equipment (PPE), then a shortage in long-distance freight, then a shortage of containers, then a shortage of semiconductors. As India undergoes a catastrophic third wave, it halts all exports of the vaccines expected in many, mostly developing countries. But as economies begin to recuperate the scope of shortages expands from aluminum foil to construction wood.

This leads to price increases. Some of those increases will not be temporary, so according to some specialists, "inflation" is on the loom...

Then add to the that mix: Russia's vicious war against the Ukraine, with a worldwide gas, oil and grains crisis. This is definitely not funny anymore.

---

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/10/china-and-physics…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/chinas-war-chest-how-the-…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/14/us-microchip-indu…

https://eand.co/why-everything-is-suddenly-getting-more-expensive-and-w… And now, shortages in just about everything - but read this with caution, some doubtful "facts".

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-tiny-1-chip-that-is-behind-record…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-02/china-s-inflation…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/inflation-rate-2021-…

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/chip-wars-us-china-and-the-battle-for…

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/whats-causing-the-chip-shortage-affecti…

https://hbr.org/2021/02/why-were-in-the-midst-of-a-global-semiconductor…

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/a-tour-of-the-semiconductor-industry

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/an-introduction-to-semiconductor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_Manufacturing_International…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

History of TSMC:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RMr9lzlgrReruoosnoHLIZ0hHbqJT5Kq7hZ…

 

 

Comments

walgreens phar… (not verified)

8 months ago

First of all I want to say terrific blog! I had a quick question which I'd like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your head before writing. I have had difficulty clearing my mind in getting my ideas out there. I truly do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes tend to be wasted simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or hints? Many thanks!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

8 months ago

Hello Dear, are you really visiting this website regularly, if so then you will absolutely take good experience.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

8 months ago

Hello! I understand this is sort of off-topic but I had to ask. Does building a well-established website like yours take a massive amount work? I'm brand new to running a blog however I do write in my diary daily. I'd like to start a blog so I can share my experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any kind of suggestions or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

best canadian … (not verified)

8 months ago

Link exchange is nothing else but it is only placing the other person's webpage link on your page at suitable place and other person will also do similar for you.

online pharmac… (not verified)

8 months ago

Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to assert that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently quickly.

pharmacy drugs… (not verified)

8 months ago

An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who has been doing a little homework on this. And he actually ordered me dinner because I discovered it for him... lol. So let me reword this.... Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to talk about this subject here on your website.

pharmaceutical… (not verified)

8 months ago

I like the valuable info you provide in your articles. I'll bookmark your blog and check again here regularly. I'm quite certain I will learn plenty of new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

8 months ago

It's awesome to visit this web page and reading the views of all mates about this piece of writing, while I am also keen of getting familiarity.

discount canad… (not verified)

8 months ago

We are a bunch of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your web site provided us with valuable info to work on. You have done an impressive process and our entire neighborhood shall be grateful to you.

london drugs canada (not verified)

8 months ago

Superb post however , I was wondering if you could write a litte more on this topic? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit more. Thank you!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

8 months ago

I have been surfing online more than 3 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It's pretty worth enough for me. Personally, if all site owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the web will be a lot more useful than ever before.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

8 months ago

When I initially commented I clicked the "Notify me when new comments are added" checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get several e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Bless you!

cialis generic… (not verified)

8 months ago

I think the admin of this site is actually working hard for his site, because here every stuff is quality based material.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 4 weeks ago

I know this web site provides quality based content and extra material, is there any other website which gives these information in quality?

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 4 weeks ago

I was curious if you ever considered changing the structure of your site? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or two pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 4 weeks ago

I'll right away seize your rss as I can't find your e-mail subscription link or e-newsletter service. Do you've any? Please let me recognize in order that I may subscribe. Thanks.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 4 weeks ago

Hi, I think your site might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your blog site in Ie, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, terrific blog!

online pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 4 weeks ago

Howdy! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a group of volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us valuable information to work on. You have done a wonderful job!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 4 weeks ago

Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said "You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear." She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

I'm now not sure where you are getting your information, but great topic. I must spend a while studying more or working out more. Thanks for wonderful info I used to be searching for this info for my mission.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Hi, I do think this is an excellent web site. I stumbledupon it ;) I'm going to return yet again since I saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide other people.

best canadian … (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

This design is steller! You certainly know how to keep a reader amused. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost...HaHa!) Fantastic job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Every weekend i used to go to see this web site, because i wish for enjoyment, as this this site conations actually good funny material too.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Thanks for sharing your info. I truly appreciate your efforts and I am waiting for your further write ups thanks once again.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Excellent post. I was checking constantly this blog and I'm impressed! Extremely helpful info specially the last part :) I care for such info a lot. I used to be seeking this certain information for a long time. Thanks and best of luck.

pharmaceutical… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Does your website have a contact page? I'm having a tough time locating it but, I'd like to send you an e-mail. I've got some ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it expand over time.

pharmaceutical… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your post seem to be running off the screen in Chrome. I'm not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I figured I'd post to let you know. The layout look great though! Hope you get the issue solved soon. Many thanks

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Wonderful site. Plenty of helpful information here. I'm sending it to some buddies ans also sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks for your effort!

canadian drugstore (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

I am actually glad to glance at this blog posts which includes plenty of valuable information, thanks for providing these kinds of statistics.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

I like the helpful info you provide in your articles. I'll bookmark your blog and check again here regularly. I am quite sure I'll learn plenty of new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with a few pics to drive the message home a little bit, but instead of that, this is wonderful blog. A great read. I'll certainly be back.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Howdy just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the images aren't loading properly. I'm not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I've tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same outcome.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

You could certainly see your skills within the article you write. The world hopes for more passionate writers such as you who aren't afraid to say how they believe. At all times follow your heart.

list of canadi… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

An interesting discussion is worth comment. I do believe that you ought to write more about this subject matter, it may not be a taboo matter but generally people do not discuss such topics. To the next! Best wishes!!

canadian pharcharmy (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I have truly enjoyed surfing around your blog posts. In any case I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again very soon!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Does your blog have a contact page? I'm having problems locating it but, I'd like to send you an email. I've got some creative ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great blog and I look forward to seeing it improve over time.

cheap prescrip… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

Hello, i think that i saw you visited my web site so i came to “return the favor”.I am trying to find things to enhance my web site!I suppose its ok to use a few of your ideas!!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

I every time used to study article in news papers but now as I am a user of internet so from now I am using net for articles, thanks to web.

pharmacy on line (not verified)

7 months 3 weeks ago

This is a topic that's near to my heart... Many thanks! Exactly where are your contact details though?

canadian drugs… (not verified)

7 months 2 weeks ago

I don't even understand how I finished up here, but I believed this submit was once good. I do not recognise who you might be but certainly you're going to a well-known blogger when you are not already. Cheers!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 2 weeks ago

What's up colleagues, its wonderful post on the topic of tutoringand completely explained, keep it up all the time.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 2 weeks ago

Everyone loves what you guys tend to be up too. Such clever work and exposure! Keep up the excellent works guys I've included you guys to my blogroll.

Add new comment

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a href hreflang title rel> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote cite> <code> <ul type> <ol start type> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <h2 id> <h3 id> <h4 id> <h5 id> <h6 id> <sup> <sub>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.