By jwr |

Where was Hari Seldon? He would have predicted all this and the effects would have been much softer.

Semiconductor shortage

A global shortage of semiconductors is growing out of control. Almost all types of electronic goods are affected, from smartphones and gaming equipment to vehicles and kitchen appliances. While the semiconductor manufacturers struggle to supply their largest customers like Apple and Samsung, smaller customers like automobile and appliance manufacturers are experiencing delays that are now halting the production lines: just a small chip missing and the vehicle can't get finished (The Guardian).

How could this happen?

The basis lies again, of course, in the corona crisis with initial production delays, now alleviated. And then a couple of additional developments.

  • People bought more stay-at-home electronic goods in the pandemic, increasing demand: TVs, home computers, game consoles, 5G enabled phones, and whatever you yourself bought to stave off boredom.
  • Vehicle manufacturers have now finally and en masse decided on electric cars, mostly electronics-stuffed. All this requires semiconductors.
  • Not described elsewhere, but a known fact, is when demand of certain items increases China, it is likely to affect the entire globe. We note here baby milk powder, hardwood, (protected) exotic animals, and wild mushrooms as simple examples.
  • Then D. Trump (US National Vulgarist) added the high-tech front to the US-China Trade War: semiconductors. And there you have it, a perfect storm.

Who makes the chips?

While a number of major tech companies claim to be chip manufacturers, many of those companies simply aren't. They farm the manufacturing out to technologically adept lower income countries: China, Taiwan, South Korea. Note here the new-fangled idiosyncrasy of terms: a manufacturer who does not manufacture remains to be called a manufacturer, albeit a "fabless manufacturer", while the jargon for an actual manufacturer is not called a manufacturer, but a "foundry". The top 5 foundries, listed roughly according to size:

  • TSMC (Taiwan), leader, cutting edge chips, standard chips
  • Samsung Foundries (South Korea), Intel (USA), SMIC (China), for standard chips
  • Global Foundries (USA), Skywater (USA), both for specialty chips

Note: Of course there are many smaller foundries all over, but generally a large unreal manufacturer would avoid to get the components for a specific item from a slew of different smaller companies. Note also that world leader TSMC also operates semiconductor foundries in China, producing standard chips. And also note that China is on turbodrive to expand local semiconductor manufacturing for standard and high-tech chips.

A complete list of List of Semiconductor fabrication plants is shown in Wikipedia. Toggle the list for Production Capacity (size). Also toggle it for Process Technology (sophistication) to see who manufactures the newest/ fastest/ smallest high-end chips (indicated by 3nm or 5nm), that is by the way TSMC in Taiwan, possibly by order and design of Apple.

Geopolitical aspects

We've already seen the dependence of all modern products and manufacturing on these semiconductors. The concentration of the bulk of manufacturing in an area where one single country, China, is showing increasing influence, to the degree of threats and even military grandstanding, should be seen as a global geopolitical socio-economic risk.

Whatever the few pennies it costs more, these semiconductors should also be made on grand scale in other areas.

Strategic materials

In cases of crises or conflicts, the obvious aim is to secure needed strategic materials. These used to be oil, steel, coal, food, but also important manufacturing. While the fundamentals of strategic materials remain, the content changes, and now includes rare metals, water and... semiconductor manufacturing.

Just one example. "Beijing’s main problem is the manufacturing of high-end chips. Huawei’s Kirin chipsets are made by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) using American technology." (TRT World). Now that's quite a conflagration of dependencies, and it's already causing trouble.

Low Tech

Apparently at mid 2021, the greatest bottleneck are the small IC chips that control larger or smaller LCD screens. Specifically these chips are not made in high tech IC foundries making high-end 10 or 7 nanometer chips, but in rather older, run of the mill factories making 40 to 150 nanometer chips. As everyone has been rushing to upgrade (ostensibly to make more money), the "manufacturers" were caught flatfooted when demand for cheap ICs controlling mundane LCD screens suddenly mushroomed during the pandemic. And now, experts expect the backlog to last well into 2023!

What's next?

Of course, the semiconductor sector will normalize at some time, hopefully with more geographical diversification. But as before, chips are not likely to get less expensive.

As of mid 2021 the pandemic continues to cause a slew of shortages, either caused by production issues, export stops, changed consumer behavior, or, like in China, industrial catch-up growth - again affecting the globe.

Of course, first it was a shortage of personal protection equipment (PPE), then a shortage in long-distance freight, then a shortage of containers, then a shortage of semiconductors. As India undergoes a catastrophic third wave, it halts all exports of the vaccines expected in many, mostly developing countries. But as economies begin to recuperate the scope of shortages expands from aluminum foil to construction wood.

This leads to price increases. Some of those increases will not be temporary, so according to some specialists, "inflation" is on the loom...

Then add to the that mix: Russia's vicious war against the Ukraine, with a worldwide gas, oil and grains crisis. This is definitely not funny anymore.

---

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/10/china-and-physics…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/chinas-war-chest-how-the-…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/14/us-microchip-indu…

https://eand.co/why-everything-is-suddenly-getting-more-expensive-and-w… And now, shortages in just about everything - but read this with caution, some doubtful "facts".

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-tiny-1-chip-that-is-behind-record…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-02/china-s-inflation…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/inflation-rate-2021-…

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/chip-wars-us-china-and-the-battle-for…

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/whats-causing-the-chip-shortage-affecti…

https://hbr.org/2021/02/why-were-in-the-midst-of-a-global-semiconductor…

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/a-tour-of-the-semiconductor-industry

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/an-introduction-to-semiconductor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_Manufacturing_International…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

History of TSMC:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RMr9lzlgrReruoosnoHLIZ0hHbqJT5Kq7hZ…

 

 

Comments

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

Woah! I'm really loving the template/theme of this site. It's simple, yet effective. A lot of times it's very difficult to get that "perfect balance" between user friendliness and visual appeal. I must say that you've done a very good job with this. Also, the blog loads super fast for me on Safari. Exceptional Blog!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

It's a pity you don't have a donate button! I'd certainly donate to this excellent blog! I guess for now i'll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to new updates and will talk about this blog with my Facebook group. Chat soon!

pharmaceutical… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

Heya! I realize this is somewhat off-topic but I had to ask. Does managing a well-established blog such as yours require a lot of work? I am brand new to writing a blog however I do write in my diary daily. I'd like to start a blog so I can easily share my experience and views online. Please let me know if you have any recommendations or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

When some one searches for his essential thing, therefore he/she wishes to be available that in detail, therefore that thing is maintained over here.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

Excellent post. I used to be checking continuously this weblog and I'm inspired! Very helpful information specifically the closing part :) I handle such information much. I was looking for this certain information for a very lengthy time. Thanks and good luck.

viagra generic… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

Very good blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring writers? I'm hoping to start my own website soon but I'm a little lost on everything. Would you advise starting with a free platform like Wordpress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there that I'm completely overwhelmed .. Any tips? Many thanks!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

Admiring the commitment you put into your website and detailed information you present. It's great to come across a blog every once in a while that isn't the same out of date rehashed information. Fantastic read! I've saved your site and I'm adding your RSS feeds to my Google account.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get setup? I'm assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I'm not very web savvy so I'm not 100% certain. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Kudos

online pharmac… (not verified)

7 months 1 week ago

Quality articles or reviews is the important to interest the users to go to see the site, that's what this website is providing.

pharmacies in … (not verified)

7 months ago

For newest information you have to pay a quick visit world wide web and on the web I found this site as a best site for latest updates.

buy viagra pha… (not verified)

7 months ago

Howdy, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just curious if you get a lot of spam remarks? If so how do you prevent it, any plugin or anything you can recommend? I get so much lately it's driving me mad so any help is very much appreciated.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months ago

I every time spent my half an hour to read this website's posts every day along with a mug of coffee.

canada discoun… (not verified)

7 months ago

Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to say that I have truly loved surfing around your weblog posts. After all I will be subscribing in your feed and I hope you write again very soon!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months ago

I like the helpful info you provide in your articles. I will bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently. I'm quite certain I will learn a lot of new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months ago

Hi there to all, how is the whole thing, I think every one is getting more from this web site, and your views are fastidious in favor of new viewers.

discount pharmacies (not verified)

7 months ago

I don't know whether it's just me or if perhaps everyone else experiencing problems with your site. It appears as if some of the text on your content are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them too? This may be a issue with my internet browser because I've had this happen previously. Cheers

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months ago

This is a topic which is close to my heart... Thank you! Exactly where are your contact details though?

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months ago

Hi there, yes this paragraph is really good and I have learned lot of things from it on the topic of blogging. thanks.

canadian gover… (not verified)

7 months ago

May I simply say what a comfort to find someone who really understands what they're discussing on the web. You actually understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More people ought to read this and understand this side of your story. I can't believe you're not more popular because you surely possess the gift.

pharmacies online (not verified)

7 months ago

Just want to say your article is as surprising. The clearness on your put up is simply nice and i could think you are knowledgeable on this subject. Fine with your permission let me to seize your feed to keep up to date with impending post. Thank you 1,000,000 and please keep up the rewarding work.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months ago

It's awesome in favor of me to have a web page, which is valuable in favor of my experience. thanks admin

canadian drugs… (not verified)

7 months ago

It's truly very difficult in this active life to listen news on Television, thus I just use web for that purpose, and get the most recent information.

generic viagra… (not verified)

7 months ago

Hi, after reading this awesome article i am as well cheerful to share my experience here with colleagues.

best canadian … (not verified)

7 months ago

Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You definitely know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months ago

Excellent site you have here but I was wondering if you knew of any community forums that cover the same topics discussed in this article? I'd really love to be a part of group where I can get comments from other experienced people that share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Kudos!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months ago

It's really a nice and useful piece of info. I'm satisfied that you simply shared this useful information with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.

canadian pharmacies (not verified)

7 months ago

I've been browsing on-line more than three hours today, yet I by no means discovered any fascinating article like yours. It is lovely value sufficient for me. In my opinion, if all web owners and bloggers made just right content material as you did, the net will probably be a lot more useful than ever before.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

7 months ago

Hi! I know this is kinda off topic however I'd figured I'd ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest authoring a blog article or vice-versa? My website goes over a lot of the same subjects as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!

canadian onlin… (not verified)

7 months ago

Thanks for any other excellent article. Where else may anyone get that type of info in such a perfect approach of writing? I have a presentation subsequent week, and I'm on the look for such info.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months ago

you are actually a good webmaster. The web site loading velocity is incredible. It sort of feels that you're doing any unique trick. Furthermore, The contents are masterwork. you have done a great job on this topic!

canadian drugs… (not verified)

7 months ago

Hi, yeah this paragraph is in fact fastidious and I have learned lot of things from it regarding blogging. thanks.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

7 months ago

I'm no longer sure where you're getting your information, but great topic. I must spend some time learning much more or figuring out more. Thanks for excellent information I used to be looking for this information for my mission.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 4 weeks ago

I think the admin of this web site is genuinely working hard for his site, as here every stuff is quality based material.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 4 weeks ago

Hey! Someone in my Facebook group shared this website with us so I came to look it over. I'm definitely loving the information. I'm bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Excellent blog and wonderful style and design.

discount canad… (not verified)

6 months 4 weeks ago

Having read this I thought it was really enlightening. I appreciate you finding the time and energy to put this short article together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 4 weeks ago

hey there and thank you for your information – I have definitely picked up anything new from right here. I did however expertise some technical issues using this site, as I experienced to reload the web site many times previous to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your web host is OK? Not that I am complaining, but slow loading instances times will very frequently affect your placement in google and could damage your high quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I am adding this RSS to my email and could look out for much more of your respective fascinating content. Ensure that you update this again very soon.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 4 weeks ago

I'm really loving the theme/design of your website. Do you ever run into any web browser compatibility problems? A couple of my blog visitors have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Firefox. Do you have any solutions to help fix this issue?

walgreens phar… (not verified)

6 months 4 weeks ago

It's very easy to find out any topic on net as compared to textbooks, as I found this paragraph at this web page.

navarro pharma… (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Currently it appears like Expression Engine is the top blogging platform out there right now. (from what I've read) Is that what you're using on your blog?

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

It's a shame you don't have a donate button! I'd without a doubt donate to this brilliant blog! I suppose for now i'll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to fresh updates and will share this blog with my Facebook group. Chat soon!

canadian drugs… (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Valuable information. Fortunate me I found your web site by accident, and I'm shocked why this twist of fate didn't happened earlier! I bookmarked it.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Your style is unique compared to other folks I've read stuff from. I appreciate you for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I will just book mark this web site.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Hello, just wanted to say, I enjoyed this blog post. It was inspiring. Keep on posting!

Add new comment

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a href hreflang title rel> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote cite> <code> <ul type> <ol start type> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <h2 id> <h3 id> <h4 id> <h5 id> <h6 id> <sup> <sub>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.