By jwr |

Where was Hari Seldon? He would have predicted all this and the effects would have been much softer.

Semiconductor shortage

A global shortage of semiconductors is growing out of control. Almost all types of electronic goods are affected, from smartphones and gaming equipment to vehicles and kitchen appliances. While the semiconductor manufacturers struggle to supply their largest customers like Apple and Samsung, smaller customers like automobile and appliance manufacturers are experiencing delays that are now halting the production lines: just a small chip missing and the vehicle can't get finished (The Guardian).

How could this happen?

The basis lies again, of course, in the corona crisis with initial production delays, now alleviated. And then a couple of additional developments.

  • People bought more stay-at-home electronic goods in the pandemic, increasing demand: TVs, home computers, game consoles, 5G enabled phones, and whatever you yourself bought to stave off boredom.
  • Vehicle manufacturers have now finally and en masse decided on electric cars, mostly electronics-stuffed. All this requires semiconductors.
  • Not described elsewhere, but a known fact, is when demand of certain items increases China, it is likely to affect the entire globe. We note here baby milk powder, hardwood, (protected) exotic animals, and wild mushrooms as simple examples.
  • Then D. Trump (US National Vulgarist) added the high-tech front to the US-China Trade War: semiconductors. And there you have it, a perfect storm.

Who makes the chips?

While a number of major tech companies claim to be chip manufacturers, many of those companies simply aren't. They farm the manufacturing out to technologically adept lower income countries: China, Taiwan, South Korea. Note here the new-fangled idiosyncrasy of terms: a manufacturer who does not manufacture remains to be called a manufacturer, albeit a "fabless manufacturer", while the jargon for an actual manufacturer is not called a manufacturer, but a "foundry". The top 5 foundries, listed roughly according to size:

  • TSMC (Taiwan), leader, cutting edge chips, standard chips
  • Samsung Foundries (South Korea), Intel (USA), SMIC (China), for standard chips
  • Global Foundries (USA), Skywater (USA), both for specialty chips

Note: Of course there are many smaller foundries all over, but generally a large unreal manufacturer would avoid to get the components for a specific item from a slew of different smaller companies. Note also that world leader TSMC also operates semiconductor foundries in China, producing standard chips. And also note that China is on turbodrive to expand local semiconductor manufacturing for standard and high-tech chips.

A complete list of List of Semiconductor fabrication plants is shown in Wikipedia. Toggle the list for Production Capacity (size). Also toggle it for Process Technology (sophistication) to see who manufactures the newest/ fastest/ smallest high-end chips (indicated by 3nm or 5nm), that is by the way TSMC in Taiwan, possibly by order and design of Apple.

Geopolitical aspects

We've already seen the dependence of all modern products and manufacturing on these semiconductors. The concentration of the bulk of manufacturing in an area where one single country, China, is showing increasing influence, to the degree of threats and even military grandstanding, should be seen as a global geopolitical socio-economic risk.

Whatever the few pennies it costs more, these semiconductors should also be made on grand scale in other areas.

Strategic materials

In cases of crises or conflicts, the obvious aim is to secure needed strategic materials. These used to be oil, steel, coal, food, but also important manufacturing. While the fundamentals of strategic materials remain, the content changes, and now includes rare metals, water and... semiconductor manufacturing.

Just one example. "Beijing’s main problem is the manufacturing of high-end chips. Huawei’s Kirin chipsets are made by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) using American technology." (TRT World). Now that's quite a conflagration of dependencies, and it's already causing trouble.

Low Tech

Apparently at mid 2021, the greatest bottleneck are the small IC chips that control larger or smaller LCD screens. Specifically these chips are not made in high tech IC foundries making high-end 10 or 7 nanometer chips, but in rather older, run of the mill factories making 40 to 150 nanometer chips. As everyone has been rushing to upgrade (ostensibly to make more money), the "manufacturers" were caught flatfooted when demand for cheap ICs controlling mundane LCD screens suddenly mushroomed during the pandemic. And now, experts expect the backlog to last well into 2023!

What's next?

Of course, the semiconductor sector will normalize at some time, hopefully with more geographical diversification. But as before, chips are not likely to get less expensive.

As of mid 2021 the pandemic continues to cause a slew of shortages, either caused by production issues, export stops, changed consumer behavior, or, like in China, industrial catch-up growth - again affecting the globe.

Of course, first it was a shortage of personal protection equipment (PPE), then a shortage in long-distance freight, then a shortage of containers, then a shortage of semiconductors. As India undergoes a catastrophic third wave, it halts all exports of the vaccines expected in many, mostly developing countries. But as economies begin to recuperate the scope of shortages expands from aluminum foil to construction wood.

This leads to price increases. Some of those increases will not be temporary, so according to some specialists, "inflation" is on the loom...

Then add to the that mix: Russia's vicious war against the Ukraine, with a worldwide gas, oil and grains crisis. This is definitely not funny anymore.

---

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/10/china-and-physics…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/chinas-war-chest-how-the-…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/14/us-microchip-indu…

https://eand.co/why-everything-is-suddenly-getting-more-expensive-and-w… And now, shortages in just about everything - but read this with caution, some doubtful "facts".

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-tiny-1-chip-that-is-behind-record…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-02/china-s-inflation…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/inflation-rate-2021-…

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/chip-wars-us-china-and-the-battle-for…

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/whats-causing-the-chip-shortage-affecti…

https://hbr.org/2021/02/why-were-in-the-midst-of-a-global-semiconductor…

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/a-tour-of-the-semiconductor-industry

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/an-introduction-to-semiconductor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_Manufacturing_International…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

History of TSMC:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RMr9lzlgrReruoosnoHLIZ0hHbqJT5Kq7hZ…

 

 

Comments

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Thanks for the good writeup. It in fact used to be a enjoyment account it. Look complicated to far introduced agreeable from you! By the way, how can we be in contact?

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Greate post. Keep writing such kind of information on your blog. Im really impressed by it.
Hi there, You've done a fantastic job. I'll definitely digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I'm sure they'll be benefited from this web site.

24 hour pharmacy (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Heya! I realize this is somewhat off-topic but I needed to ask. Does running a well-established website like yours require a lot of work? I am completely new to operating a blog however I do write in my journal everyday. I'd like to start a blog so I can easily share my own experience and thoughts online. Please let me know if you have any kind of suggestions or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

canadian cialis (not verified)

6 months 3 weeks ago

Hi! This post could not be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this post to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

panacea pharmacy (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Simply desire to say your article is as astounding. The clearness in your post is simply cool and i could assume you're an expert on this subject. Well with your permission allow me to grab your RSS feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please continue the gratifying work.

publix pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Hi! I could have sworn I've visited this web site before but after looking at a few of the posts I realized it's new to me. Nonetheless, I'm certainly pleased I found it and I'll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

What's up, just wanted to say, I enjoyed this article. It was helpful. Keep on posting!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

If you desire to get a good deal from this piece of writing then you have to apply these strategies to your won web site.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Hi, yup this piece of writing is in fact fastidious and I have learned lot of things from it concerning blogging. thanks.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Hello, i believe that i saw you visited my weblog so i got here to go back the prefer?.I am trying to find things to improve my web site!I guess its adequate to use some of your ideas!!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Good info. Lucky me I discovered your website by accident (stumbleupon). I have bookmarked it for later!

pharmacy onlin… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

I think this is one of the most significant info for me. And i am glad reading your article. But want to remark on few general things, The web site style is wonderful, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I'm looking to design my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. many thanks

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Hi there everyone, it's my first go to see at this site, and article is in fact fruitful designed for me, keep up posting these types of articles.

canada drugs p… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Fantastic post however , I was wondering if you could write a litte more on this topic? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further. Thanks!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

You are so interesting! I don't believe I've read through anything like that before. So wonderful to find another person with a few genuine thoughts on this issue. Really.. many thanks for starting this up. This site is one thing that is needed on the web, someone with a bit of originality!

online canadia… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Hmm is anyone else having problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I'm trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it's the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Hello all, here every person is sharing these know-how, so it's fastidious to read this web site, and I used to pay a quick visit this webpage all the time.

list of canadi… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Do you mind if I quote a few of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your site? My blog site is in the exact same area of interest as yours and my users would certainly benefit from some of the information you provide here. Please let me know if this ok with you. Regards!

pharmaceutical… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

This design is spectacular! You obviously know how to keep a reader entertained. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost...HaHa!) Great job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Great blog you have here but I was wanting to know if you knew of any forums that cover the same topics discussed here? I'd really like to be a part of community where I can get feed-back from other experienced people that share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Appreciate it!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Hello! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a group of volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us valuable information to work on. You have done a outstanding job!

online pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

This page really has all the information I needed about this subject and didn't know who to ask.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Your method of explaining everything in this post is really pleasant, every one can easily understand it, Thanks a lot.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Just desire to say your article is as astonishing. The clearness for your submit is simply excellent and that i could assume you are an expert in this subject. Well with your permission let me to snatch your RSS feed to keep updated with impending post. Thanks 1,000,000 and please carry on the rewarding work.

online pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 2 weeks ago

Quality content is the important to be a focus for the viewers to go to see the site, that's what this website is providing.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

What's up Dear, are you truly visiting this web site on a regular basis, if so then you will without doubt obtain fastidious experience.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in truth was a leisure account it. Look advanced to far added agreeable from you! By the way, how can we communicate?

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

A person essentially help to make significantly articles I'd state. That is the very first time I frequented your website page and up to now? I amazed with the research you made to make this particular put up amazing. Great job!

best canadian … (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Amazing blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog jump out. Please let me know where you got your design. Cheers

online pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

A motivating discussion is definitely worth comment. I do believe that you need to write more on this subject matter, it may not be a taboo matter but typically people do not speak about these topics. To the next! Many thanks!!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Definitely consider that that you stated. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the web the simplest factor to remember of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while other people think about issues that they just don't recognise about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and outlined out the entire thing with no need side-effects , other folks could take a signal. Will likely be again to get more. Thanks

cheap pharmacy… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Hi! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my comment form? I'm using the same blog platform as yours and I'm having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!

on line pharmacy (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

I'm not sure where you're getting your info, but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more. Thanks for wonderful info I was looking for this info for my mission.

pharmacy discount (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Hello all, here every one is sharing these kinds of know-how, thus it's fastidious to read this weblog, and I used to visit this web site every day.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

If some one wants expert view regarding blogging and site-building then i advise him/her to pay a visit this web site, Keep up the nice work.

medical pharmacy (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

This is my first time visit at here and i am really pleassant to read everthing at one place.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

I’m not that much of a internet reader to be honest but your blogs really nice, keep it up! I'll go ahead and bookmark your website to come back down the road. Many thanks

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

What's up everyone, it's my first go to see at this web site, and piece of writing is truly fruitful designed for me, keep up posting these types of content.

viagra pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thank you, However I am having troubles with your RSS. I don't know why I can't subscribe to it. Is there anybody else having similar RSS problems? Anyone that knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Excellent blog! Do you have any tips for aspiring writers? I'm hoping to start my own blog soon but I'm a little lost on everything. Would you propose starting with a free platform like Wordpress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there that I'm completely confused .. Any suggestions? Thank you!

online pharmac… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

I'm gone to inform my little brother, that he should also pay a visit this webpage on regular basis to take updated from most up-to-date news update.

navarro pharma… (not verified)

6 months 1 week ago

Asking questions are genuinely pleasant thing if you are not understanding something completely, but this post presents nice understanding yet.

buy viagra pha… (not verified)

6 months ago

Fantastic beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your site, how can i subscribe for a blog web site? The account aided me a acceptable deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright clear idea

buy viagra pha… (not verified)

6 months ago

Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your content seem to be running off the screen in Firefox. I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I figured I'd post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the problem fixed soon. Cheers

cheap pharmacy… (not verified)

6 months ago

Hi there to every body, it's my first pay a visit of this webpage; this weblog contains awesome and genuinely good information in favor of readers.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

6 months ago

Hello! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of hard work due to no backup. Do you have any methods to prevent hackers?

canada pharmac… (not verified)

6 months ago

Hi there! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came to look it over. I'm definitely loving the information. I'm book-marking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Superb blog and great style and design.

Add new comment

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a href hreflang title rel> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote cite> <code> <ul type> <ol start type> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <h2 id> <h3 id> <h4 id> <h5 id> <h6 id> <sup> <sub>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.